The USDA released its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Thursday.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company in Chicago, had these thoughts on the report.
"It's one of oversupply and we were a little surprised by the big soybean yields," he said. "We'll start to get better estimates as harvest starts, but that's what the USDA came out with and that's what we'll live with here for at least another four weeks."
U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 130.9 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month mainly due to higher soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,381 million bushels, up 121 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 88.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 49.4 bushels per acre is 1.4 bushels above last month but 2.7 below last year’s record. With higher production and lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017/18 are projected at 4,777 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 576.7 million tons, up 2.8 million, mainly on a 2.3-million-ton increase for soybean production.
Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to 1,739 million. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are decreased 5 million bushels to 933 million.
Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly, primarily on an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million.
Canadian wheat production is reduced 1.9 million tons to 26.5 million on the increasing intensification of drought conditions in major production areas of the Prairie Provinces.
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend-based projection. This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for virtually unchanged production, lower trade, and greater stocks relative to last month.