Whether its rain, freezing rain, snow or gusty winds, it's likely some combination of that mix will be part of your forecast between Saturday night and Monday night. Environment Canada has updated its long list of Watches, Warnings and Statements for the province as a Montana low makes its way to the province.

The forecaster has extended the Special Weather Statement for the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, including the Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris regions. A Blizzard Warning is now in place for all of southwestern Manitoba, as far east as the Pilot Mound and Manitou regions, with the Carman area now under a Winter Storm Warning.

You can find your latest forecast details, here.

"We continue to see some uncertainty with the exact track of this particular storm," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "That's typical with a Colorado low or Montana low-like system. Why it's so crucial this time around is there will be a fairly sharp line between significant impacts due to heavy snow and winds, and somewhat lesser impacts due to a snow rain mix leading to lower accumulations initially, before a complete changeover to snowfall. That line is hovering somewhere over the Red River Valley, meaning that region and eastward, at least as of right now, could see less snow than areas further west and north."

According to Environment Canada, snow will begin Saturday evening, with 2 to 5 cm expected Saturday night over southeastern sections of the province. Visibility will be reduced in snow and blowing snow with gusts of 60 to 70 km/h. There is a risk of freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday morning as the precipitation transitions to rain or a rain/snow mix. In these same areas, 5 to 10 mm of rain is possible on Sunday, before precipitation transitions back to snow Sunday night with another 4 to 8 cm of snow possible.

Sumner, again, stressed areas remaining within the Special Weather Statement will be impacted by this storm, and will see travel conditions deteriorate throughout Sunday in some regard.

"As an area of warm air is pulled into the leading edge of the system Saturday night into Sunday morning, that means a higher chance of freezing rain developing before a changeover to rain if temperatures push above zero as currently forecasted for Sunday," he said. "The current guidance is for temperatures to remain above freezing Sunday for the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, before dropping overnight, meaning a changeover to snowfall Sunday evening and into Monday morning."

Sumner added as the low pressure system's track continues to develop, so will the area of that rain/snow line.

"With that in mind, it's difficult to say just how much snow may fall in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, but it continues to look like it will be substantially less than the hardest hit regions in the western half of Manitoba," he said. "Depending on how this system pulls into the province, we could still see changes, so please keep a close eye on the forecast," he noted.

For the latest Road Report information, click here.

Meanwhile, for the southwestern part of the province, it is a much different story, with a high level of certainty regarding substantial snowfall between Saturday night and Monday morning.

"As the system strengthens Saturday night, snowfall rates and wind speeds will increase creating blizzard conditions," explained the Warning issued by Environment Canada Saturday morning. "Blizzard conditions will improve Sunday evening as wind speeds weaken, but heavy snow will continue to Monday morning. Travel is expected to be very difficult, or impossible, due to near-zero visibility. Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult. Road closures are possible."

At this point, 25 to 35cms of snow is likely across the Southwestern portion of the province.

Impacts from this low will continue into Monday, and it will be Monday night before it finally has moved out of our area.

This storm comes on the heels of the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre's latest Spring Flood Outlook which indicated a low to moderate risk of flooding in the Red River Valley, and a low risk for the Assiniboine and Souris.

"The Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre will analyze the data from the precipitation system once it clears the province, and factor this information into the March Flood Outlook Report, which will be released in late March," stated a late Friday afternoon news release from the Province.

Related Stories