COVID-19 case counts in Manitoba are headed in a good direction, while vaccination rates continue to climb, according to Dr. Jazz Atwal, Chief Provincial Public Health Officer in Manitoba.

Provincial data shows there were 223 new cases of the virus announced on Friday, and 70.6 per cent of adult Manitobans have now received at least one dose of the vaccine.

Dr. Atwal presented further updated data on Friday from modeling done earlier this week. The model has projections until the end of summer.

According to the data, the daily number of tests has decreased and is now below the lower limit of the projected range.

"Such a decrease is likely related to less circulating virus because of our restrictions and, more importantly, the adherence to the restrictions by everyone," suggests Dr. Atwal.

He notes right now the models are showing that Manitoba's case numbers are following moderate projections.

"This indicates the restrictions have been in place and the adherence to those restrictions by the public health helped reduce the spread of the virus in Manitoba," he says. "And this is why we have been able to begin easing restrictions and looking at charting a path to reopening."

Even though the number of COVID-19 cases is dropping in Manitoba, Dr. Atwal says there will likely continue to be a high volume of severe outcomes in our province for the next couple of weeks. He notes severe outcomes tend to occur one or two weeks after diagnosis.

Dr. Atwal says the number of daily hospitalizations continues to follow the moderate to severe scenario in our province. He notes with the immunization of the populations at higher risk of hospitalization, the ratio between the number of diagnosed cases and the number of hospitalizations is expected to improve in the direction of having fewer people presenting with severe illness. However, he notes some variants offer higher risk of severe outcomes, which counters the impact of immunizations to some degree.

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy numbers are following the severe scenario.

"In the past few days, the overall number of people in ICU seems to have stabilized," notes Dr. Atwal. "However, it's still an extremely high number and it isn't sustainable."

According to Dr. Atwal, from June 1-6, there were 151 people admitted to hospital. Of those, data show 73 per cent were never vaccinated. On top of that, there were seven per cent that had their first dose of vaccine but got a COVID-19 infection less than 14 days from their vaccination date. In contrast, the data shows only 2.6 per cent of hospital admissions were in those who were vaccinated with two doses. None of those who were fully vaccinated entered the ICU.

Meanwhile, Dr. Atwal says the current models do not factor in the Gamma or Delta variants. He notes the Delta variant in particular has the potential to be more transmissible with more severe impacts in relation to hospitalizations and ICU admissions.