The Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre has issued an overland flood watch from the evening of June 13th to the morning of June 15th for an area covering Central, Southern, and Southwestern Manitoba ahead of a potentially rainy stretch the next couple of days.
Weather forecasts indicate increased potential for thunderstorms which could bring a significant amount of high intensity rain in a short period of time.
Water levels on streams and drains in these regions are declining, but heavy rains could result in overland flooding and potential for flash flooding, particularly for waterways that drain from higher elevations. Depending on the amount and intensity of rain, water levels could rise rapidly and threaten low-lying or nearby properties, as well as roads, crossings, and other infrastructure.
Current guidance estimates potentially 10 to 20mm of rainfall for the Pembina and Red River Valleys, with slightly less expected in the Southwestern part of the province. Storm totals could be significantly higher in areas that see severe thunderstorm development, or prolonged rains, between Monday night and Wednesday morning. It's important to note there is still uncertainty regarding which regions will see the most significant rainfall, so totals could be significantly different than the initial estimates.
Meanwhile, water levels on some Red river tributaries are increasing due to the precipitation received on the weekend, however, the main stem of the Red River is continuing to decline, and water levels are within bank.