In what could be described as a severe weather outbreak, multiple confirmed tornadoes were spotted Wednesday night as parts of the Pembina Valley and Southcentral Manitoba were hammered by very strong thunderstorms.
"As of Thursday morning, based on videos and photos, storm chasers caught tornadoes on the ground near Baldur, St. Alphonse, west of Swan Lake and near Darlingford," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "The first twister was spotted northeast of Baldur between 6 and 6:15 p.m., with the additional tornadoes following afterward."
He noted there were two specific thunderstorm cells which prompted Tornado Warnings Wednesday night; the first being the one which produced the tornado near Baldur/Swan Lake/Darlingford and then a second which was located to the southeast of that which triggered Tornado Warnings for the Morden, Winkler, Plum Coulee, Altona and Gretna region.
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"Relatively quickly that second cell weakened and moved out of the Morden, Winkler and Altona region, but only an hour or so later, as it travelled southeasterly from the Baldur region, the first cell kicked off a second round of Tornado Warnings for those communities," said Sumner. "The Outdoor Emergency Warning Sirens were activated in all three communities multiple times Wednesday evening. In my twenty years of living in the Pembina Valley, I have not personally experienced this many Tornado Warnings over the course of one evening."
There have been few reports of damage, to this point, but an outdoor event structure near Swan Lake First Nation is believed to have had part of its roof and walls torn off by one of the tornadoes.
"What will happen now is Environment Canada and the Northern Tornadoes Project will investigate the video and photographic reports from last night, analyze the damage caused, and then determine how strong each of the twisters was," added Sumner.
The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP), founded at Western University in 2017, aims to better detect tornado occurrence throughout Canada, improve severe and extreme weather understanding and prediction, mitigate against harm to people and property, and investigate future implications due to climate change. Western University also partners with the University of Manitoba, Pelmorex's The Weather Network, Instant Weather and CatIQ, and closely collaborates with Environment and Climate Change Canada and several Canadian and international universities on this Project.
Wednesday evening's thunderstorm near Schanzenfeld. Photo submitted by Randy Goertzen.The following totals are for Wednesday, June 12th through 5 a.m. Thursday, June 13th (unless otherwise noted), and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Winkler (in city) - 16mm
Elm Creek - 13.2mm
Plum Coulee - 12.5mm (1/2 inch) and pea-sized hail
Gretna - 10.4mm and some smail hail (Wed Only)
Altona - 10.0mm and pea-sized hail just after midnight
Schanzenfeld/Rosenfeld - 10.0mm
Morden (AAFC Station) - 9.3mm (Wed Only)
Manitou - 8.1mm
Reinland - 8.0mm
Jordan - 7.2mm
Emerson - 4.3mm (Wed Only)
Carman/three miles north of Lowe Farm - 2.5mm
Morris - 2.3mm
Kane - 2.2mm
Winkler - (south of city) 11.3mm
Dominion City - 1.4mm
25mm = 1 inch
Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, quieter weather is expected Thursday and Friday, with mainly sunny conditions both days.
"A weak disturbance moving through Southern Manitoba today may trigger a shower or non-severe thunderstorm this afternoon or this evening," said Sumner. "Northwesterly flow today will keep temperatures a few degrees below average, landing between 20 and 22. Surface high pressure, and some upper level ridging, will help keep us mainly sunny for a good part Friday, as temperatures rebound into the 25 to 27 range, but then it appears we may be heading into a stretch of wet weather, once again."
Sumner explained yet another moisture laden low will cross over the Canadian Rockies, and then track eastward across the Prairies. Ahead of it, southwesterly flow will pump additional moisture into the system, setting the stage for several rounds of precipitation between Saturday and Tuesday nights.
"The first impacts from the the system could be Saturday, as both the warm front and cold front from this low may trigger rainfall and thunderstorms," he noted. "At this early stage, I am keeping an eye on the severe thunderstorm risk for Saturday afternoon and evening as the cold front arrives. The forecast models are suggesting the low will be centred of central Manitoba on Sunday, and that could lead to more showers lasting into Monday."
He stressed, beyond that, there is quite a bit of uncertainty how long this low will impact the region and how that will play into rain chances and daytime highs.
"At this point, don't bee too discouraged by all the rain you are seeing in the forecast Sunday through Tuesday, because it's likely that will change as we get closer to those dates, and we are able to fine tune the forecast," Sumner said. "What I would suggest is the takeaway, is right now, there is a good chance of showers through that period, but not necessarily a rain out all three days."
Back side of the severe thunderstorm Wednesday night, taken near Schoenweise and submitted by Andy Fehr.The below photos were taken by reporter Betty Sawatzky, and are looking toward the Baldur storm from the Killarney area.
Tue, Jun 25, 6:30 PM
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