Provencher MP Ted Falk is optimistic that Andrew Scheer will be the next leader of the Conservative Party. The leadership convention begins Friday night in Toronto with 14 candidates in the running. The winning candidate will be determined Saturday by late afternoon or early evening. Falk has supported Scheer since early in the race and believes he is very well positioned under the preferential ballot system which sees party members vote not only for their first choice but also indicate choices two through ten.

"He's solidly in second place with the polls that I've been looking at and what will make the difference is where people have placed their second and third choices on the ballot. And that's something that the polling doesn't show us. The polling shows us people's first choice and right now it looks as though (Maxime) Bernier is the first choice for the most amount of Conservatives but he may not have the second and third choice support that he will need to actually become the leader."

Falk says the announcement of the first choice votes will come Saturday at 4:00 p.m.

"The very first announcement will be the first choice results and then the subsequent announcements that'll be made every 15-20 minutes after that will be people's second and third choices if their first choice candidate is dropped from the list. And the way they're going to do it is that first announcement will be the first choice and then my understanding is the second announcement they will drop off the five bottom candidates and then the third announcement they'll drop off another three candidates and then another two and then another two. I'm expecting that the last ballot will come down between Bernier and Scheer and I'm hoping, personally, that Scheer will have enough support to become the leader."

Falk says the process is a little complicated but adds it creates a more cohesive leadership race.

"That's been the interesting part of the structure of this particular leadership contest. It's not just one person that you've really keyed in on supporting. You've actually worked very hard at working with people who have indicated their support for a different candidate then perhaps the one you're supporting and saying; 'Can we get your second or third place consideration?' because those could be even more important than the first place votes."

While Falk would like Scheer to win, he says would be happy to serve under any of the other candidates as well describing them all as gifted and talented individuals.