Manitoba's Infrastructure Minister is suggesting there is a chance of moderate to major flooding in parts of southern Manitoba next spring.

"This is based on a preliminary assessment of the extremely wet soil moisture conditions, the above normal to well above normal base flow and water level conditions and the near normal to above normal future precipitation forecast in river basins," says Blaine Pedersen.

The Minister says there are six primary factors when assessing long-term prospects for potential spring flooding. Those include soil moisture levels, base river flows, winter and spring precipitation, melt rate, frost index, and river and lake levels prior to spring run-off.

Pedersen says it appears soil moisture content is high in western and northern areas of the province and average to above average in the Red River Valley.

"It is very early in the flood-forecasting timeline and we will monitor numerous other variables over the winter," explains Pedersen.

According to Pedersen, a record amount of rain fell in October across much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with precipitation well above normal in all basins except the Red River. Precipitation in November was also above normal to well above normal throughout the watersheds of the Red, Souris, Lower Assiniboine and Saskatchewan rivers including the Whiteshell lakes and Interlake regions.

According to provincial officials, conditions in the Red River basin are drier than they were in the fall of 2010. That winter produced the last flood event in the Red River Valley.

"We don't want to over estimate or under estimate the flood potential four months in advance of the spring runoff," notes Pedersen.