Waterlogged Southeastern Manitoba may be in line for another evening of severe thunderstorm activity Monday night after 2 to 5+ inches of rain, and some hail, fell over two rounds Saturday and Sunday. Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Watch for Emerson, Vita, Sprague, Steinbach and surrounding areas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Morden, Winkler, Altona, Morris and surrounding areas.

"Instability remains high from the western Red River Valley, eastward across Highway 75 to the Ontario border," explains CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "Warm, moist air continues to be pumped into the region, and an approaching low will be the trigger for potential storm development."

Sumner notes there is a risk of severe thunderstorm development west of the Red River, but the tornado risk is expected to be minimal in those areas. Environment Canada indicates areas under the Tornado Watch could also see large hail, gusty winds beyond 110 km/h as well as more rain.

The current forecast suggests late afternoon or early evening as the most likely timeline for storm development.

As for the rest of the week, temperatures will drop to seasonal Tuesday through Friday, with Tuesday's daytime high expected to reach 19. A warming trend will bring average temperatures for the coming weekend. For the week of June 7th normal daytime highs are around 24, and overnight lows about 11. 

"On the precipitation front, there is some disagreement in the models regarding whether we will see rainfall Tuesday night and/or Wednesday morning from a low centred in Northwestern Ontario," adds Sumner. "Outside of that, at least at this point, it appears we should enter a drier stretch for the latter half of the week."